El Niño threatens India FMCG growth as monsoon deficit hits 28.4%, rural demand at risk
Historical El Niño years saw FMCG revenue growth slip to 8.6% vs 12.2% in normal years. With 28.4% rainfall deficit and CPI at 3.9% in May, HUL, Marico, Dabur, Emami face volume pressure through FY27. Two-wheelers and cooling appliances likely resilient.
El Nino and delayed monsoon threaten food inflation, rural demand and FMCG volumes in India. FMCG majors historically saw revenue growth slip to 8.6% vs 12.2% in non-El Nino years; two-wheelers and cooling appliances tend to remain resilient.