Crisil: Gold jewellery volumes to hit decadal low in FY26 as duty hike bites, but revenue grows 20-25%
India's organised gold jewellery volumes set to drop 13-15% YoY to 620-640 tonnes — a decadal low — after customs duty doubled to 15%. Yet a 35-40% lift in realisations and 55% rise in gold prices push revenues up 20-25%. Inventory days stretch to 160-180 and interest cover slips to 5-6x, but credit profiles remain stable.
Crisil projects India's organised gold jewellery sales volume to fall 13-15% to a decadal low this fiscal after customs duty doubled to 15%, but revenues rise 20-25% on higher prices, keeping credit profiles stable.
Why this matters
Reinforces Crisil's earlier flag of a decade-low volume drop as gold breaches Rs 1.6 lakh. Duty hike and price surge are reshaping the organised jewellery P&L despite revenue growth.
retail-company steady at 1,009 signals over the last 90 days.